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Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 2009. Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12595.
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124 RESTRUCTURING FEDERAL CLIMATE RESEARCH Alley, R.B., P.U. Clark, P. Huybrechts, and I. Joughin, 2005, Ice-sheet and sea-level changes, Science, 310, 456–460. Auffhammer, M., and R.T. Carson, 2008, Forecasting the path of China’s CO2 emissions using province level information, Journal of Envi- ronmental Economics and Management, 55, 229–247. Backlund, P., A. Janetos, D. Schimel, J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, L. Hahn, C. Izaurralde, B.A. Kimball, T. Mader, J. Morgan, D. Ort, W. Polley, A. Thomson, D. Wolfe, M.G. Ryan, S.R. Archer, R. Birdsey, C. Dahm, L. Heath, J. Hicke, D. Hollinger, T. Huxman, G. Okin, R. Oren, J. Randerson, W. Schlesinger, D. Lettenmaier, D. Major, L. Poff, S. Running, L. Hansen, D. Inouye, B.P. Kelley, L. Meyerson, B. Paterson, and R. Shaw, eds., 2008, The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3, Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Re- search, Washington, D.C., 362 pp. Bala, G., K. Caldeira, M. Wickett, T.J. Phillips, D.B. Lobell, C. Delire, and A. Mirin, 2007, Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 6550–6555. Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, and J.P. Palutikof, eds., 2008, Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp. Batterbury, S., and A. Warren, 2001, The African Sahel 25 years after the great drought: Assessing progress and moving towards new agendas and approaches, Global Environmental Change, 11, 1–8. Beller-Simms, N., H. Ingram, D. Feldman, N. Mantua, K.L. Jacobs, and A. Waple, eds., 2008, Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources, Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3, Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C., 190 pp. Bonan, G.B., 2008, Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests, Science, 320, 1444–1449. Bozmoski, A., M.C. Lemos, and E. Young, 2008, Prosperous negligence: Governing the clean development mechanism for markets and devel- opment, Environment, 50, 18. Breshears, D.D., N.S. Cobb, P.M. Rich, K.P. Price, C.D. Allen, R.G. Balice, W.H. Romme, J.H. Kastens, M.L. Floyd, J. Belnap, J.J. Anderson, O.B. Myers, and C.W. Meyer, 2005, Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102, 15,144–15,148.

REFERENCES 125 Buddemeier, R.W., J.A. Kleypas, and R.B. Aronson, 2004, Coral Reefs and Global Climate Change: Potential Contributions of Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reefs, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 35 pp., available at http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in- depth/all_reports/coral_reefs. Buesseler, K.O., S.C. Doney, D.M. Karl, P.W. Boyd, K. Caldeira, F. Chai, K.H. Coale, H.J.W. de Baar, P.G. Falkowski, K.S. Johnson, R.S. Lampitt, A.F. Michaels, S.W.A. Naqvi, V. Smetacek, S. Takeda, and A.J. Watson, 2008, Ocean iron fertilization—Moving forward in a sea of uncertainty, Science, 319, 162. Burby, R.J., 2006, Hurricane Katrina and the paradoxes of government disaster policy: Bringing about wise governmental decisions for haz- ardous areas, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 604, 171–191. Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J. Baron, J. Price, J.L. Nielsen, C.D. Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Rugger- one, and T. Doyle, 2005, Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications, Ecological Complexity, 2, 357–394. Busby, J.W., 2007, Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action, Council Special Report 32, Council on Foreign Relations, Brookings Institution Press, New York, 32 pp. CARB (California Air Resources Board), 2008, Climate Change Proposed Scoping Plan: A Framework for Change, 122 pp., available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/document/psp.pdf. Carpenter, K.E., M. Abrar, G. Aeby, R.B. Aronson, S. Banks, A. Bruckner, A. Chiriboga, J. Cortés, J.C. Delbeek, L. DeVantier, G.J. Edgar, A.J. Edwards, D. Fenner, H.M. Guzmán, B.W. Hoeksema, G. Hodgson, O. Johan, W.Y. Licuanan, S.R. Livingstone, E.R. Lovell, J.A. Moore, D.O. Obura, D. Ochavillo, B.A. Polidoro, W.F. Precht, M.C. Quibilan, C. Reboton, Z.T. Richards, A.D. Rogers, J. Sanciangco, A. Sheppard, C. Sheppard, J. Smith, S. Stuart, E. Turak, J.E.N. Veron, C. Wallace, E. Weil, and E. Wood, 2008, One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts, Science, 321, 560–563. Cazenave, A., and R.S. Nerem, 2004, Present-day sea level change: Ob- servations and causes, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG3001, doi:10.1029/2003RG000139. CCSP (Climate Change Science Program), 2003, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C., 202 pp.

126 RESTRUCTURING FEDERAL CLIMATE RESEARCH CCSP, 2008, Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008, Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C., 212 pp. CCSP, 2009, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C., 784 pp. CCTP (Climate Change Technology Program), 2006, U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, DOE/PI-0005, Washington, D.C., 224 pp., available at http://www.climatetechnology.gov/stratplan/final/ index.htm. CDWR (California Department of Water Resources), 2007, Proceedings of the Western Governors’ Association, Western States Water Council, and California Department of Water Resources May 2007 Climate Change Research Needs Workshop, Sacramento, CA, 51 pp., available at http://wwwdwr.water.ca.gov/climatechange/docs/ClimateChangeReport- 100307.pdf. CDWR, 2008a, California Drought, an Update, 2008, Sacramento, CA, 59 pp. CDWR, 2008b, Managing an Uncertain Future: Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change and California’s Water, Sacramento, CA, 30 pp., available at http://www.water.ca.gov/climatechange/docs/ ClimateChangeWhitePaper.pdf. CENR (Committee on Environment and Natural Resources), 2008, Scien- tific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States, Climate Change Science Program, Washington, D.C., 261 pp. CEOS (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites), 2006, Satellite Ob- servation of the Climate System, CEOS Response to the GCOS Implementation Plan, 54 pp., available at http://www.ceos.org/pages/ CEOSResponse_1010A.pdf. Cesar, H., P. van Beukering, S. Pintz, and J. Dierking, 2002, Economic Valuation of the Coral Reefs of Hawaii, Final report to National Oce- anic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Ocean Program, Cesar Environmental Economics Consulting, Arnhem, The Netherlands, 123 pp. Cesar, H., L. Burke, and L. Pet-Soede, 2003, The Economics of Worldwide Coral Reef Degradation, Cesar Environmental Economics Consulting (CEEC), Arnhem, The Netherlands, 23 pp. Challinor A., T. Wheeler, C. Garforth, P. Craufurd, and A. Kassam, 2007, Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change, Climate Change, 83, 381–399.

REFERENCES 127 Chambers, J.Q., J.I. Fisher, H. Zeng, E.L. Chapman, D.B. Baker, and G.C. Hurtt, 2007, Hurricane Katrina’s carbon footprint on U.S. Gulf Coast forests, Science, 318, 1107. Chan, F., J.A. Barth, J. Lubchenco, A. Kirincich, H. Weeks, W.T. Peter- son, and B.A. Menge, 2008, Emergence of anoxia in the California Current large marine ecosystem, Science, 319, 920. Christopolos, I., 2008, Incentives and Constraints to Climate Change Adaption and Disaster Risk Reduction – a Local Perspective, Com- mission on Climate Change and Development, 9 pp., available at http://www.ccdcommission.org/Filer/pdf/pb_incentives_linking_ cli- mate_change.pdf. Church, J.A., and N.J. White, 2006, A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602, doi:10.1029/2005GL024826. CNA Corporation, 2007, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, Alexandria, VA, 63 pp. Cook, T., M. Folli, J. Klinck, S. Ford, and J. Miller, 1998, The relation- ship between increasing sea-surface temperature and the northward spread of Perkinsus marinus (Dermo) disease epizootics in oysters, Estuarine and Coastal Shelf Science, 46, 587–597. Cutter, S.L., and C.T. Emrich, 2006, Moral hazard, social catastrophe: The changing face of vulnerability along the hurricane coasts, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 604, 102– 112. Dai, A., 2006, Recent climatology, variability, and trends in global sur- face humidity, Journal of Climate, 19, 3589–3606. Dai, A.G., K.E. Trenberth, and T.T. Qian, 2004, A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil mois- ture and effects of surface warming, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5, 1117–1130. Das, S.B., I. Joughin, M.D. Behn, I.M. Howat, M.A. King, D. Lizarralde, and M.P. Bhatia, 2008, Fracture propagation to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet during supraglacial lake drainage, Science, 320, 778–781. Del Toro-Silva, F.M., J.M. Miller, J.C. Taylor, and T.A. Ellis, 2008, Influence of oxygen and temperature on growth and metabolic performance of Paralichthys lethostigma (Pleuronectiformes: Paralichthyidae), Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 358, 113–123. Déry, S.J., and R.D. Brown, 2007, Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo-feedback, Geophysi- cal Research Letters, 34, L22504, doi:10.1029/2007GL031474. Diaz, R.J., and R. Rosenberg, 2008, Spreading dead zones and consequences for marine ecosystems, Science, 321, 926–929.

128 RESTRUCTURING FEDERAL CLIMATE RESEARCH Dietz, S., and N. Stern, 2008, Why economic analysis supports strong action on climate change: A response to the Stern Review’s critics, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2, 94–113. Dilling, L., S.C. Doney, J. Edmonds, K.R. Gurney, R. Harriss, D. Schimel, B. Stephens, and G. Stokes, 2003, The role of carbon cycle observations and knowledge in carbon management, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 28, 521–558. DOC (Department of Commerce), 2005, Billion dollar U.S. weather disas- ters, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/ billionz.html. DOE (Department of Energy), 2008, Identifying Outstanding Grand Challenges in Climate Change Research: Guiding DOE’s Strategic Planning, Report on the DOE/BERAC Workshop, March 25–27, 2008, Arlington, VA, 38 pp., available at http://www.sc.doe.gov/ ober/berac/Grand_Challenges_Report.pdf. Donaghy, T., J. Freeman, F. Grifo, K. Kaufman, T. Maassarani, and L. Shultz, 2007, Atmosphere of Pressure: Political Interference in Federal Climate Science, Union of Concerned Scientists and the Governmen- tal Accountability Project, Cambridge, MA, 80 pp., available at http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/scientific_integrity/atmosph ere-of-pressure.pdf. Eakin, H., and M.C. Lemos, 2006, Adaptation and the state: Latin Amer- ica and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization, Global Environmental Change, 16, 7–18. Eakin, H., and A.L. Luers, 2006, Assessing the vulnerability of social- environmental systems, Annual Review of Environment and Re- sources, 31, 365–394. Easterling, D.R., D.M. Anderson, S.J. Cohen, W.J. Gutowski, Jr., G.J. Holland, K.E. Kunkel, T.C. Peterson, R.S. Pulwarty, R.J. Stouffer, and M.F. Wehner, 2008, Measures to improve our understanding of weather and climate extremes, in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Car- ibbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands, T.R. Karl, G.A. Meehl, C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray, eds., Synthesis and As- sessment Product 3.3, Climate Change Science Program and Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C., pp. 117–126. Easterling, W.E., P.K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K.M. Brander, L. Erda, S.M. Howden, A. Kirilenko, J. Morton, J.-F. Soussana, J. Schmidhuber, and F.N. Tubiello, 2007, Food, fibre and forest products, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-

REFERENCES 129 governmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson, eds., Cam- bridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 273–313. Edmonds, J., and J. Reilly, 1983, A long-term global energy-economic model of carbon-dioxide release from fossil-fuel use, Energy Eco- nomics, 5, 74–88. EIA (Energy Information Administration), 2008a, Energy Market and Eco- nomic Impacts of S. 2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007, SR/OIAF/2008-01, Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 60 pp., available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/s2191/ index.html. EIA, 2008b, International Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0484(2008), Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 250 pp., available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/. Ellerman, A.D., P.L. Joskow, R. Schmalensee, J.P. Montero, and E.M. Bailey, 2000, Markets for Clean Air: The U.S. Acid Rain Program, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 362 pp. Elsner, J.B., J.P. Kossin, and T.H. Jagger, 2008, The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones, Nature, 455, 92–95. Emanuel, K.A., 2005, Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686–688. Emanuel, K.A., 2007, Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation, Journal of Climate, 20, 5497–5509. ESSC (Earth System Sciences Committee), 1988, Earth System Science: A Closer View, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, D.C., 208 pp. plus annexes. Ezzati, M., A. Lopez, A. Rodgers, and C. Murray, eds., 2004, Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Dis- ease Due to Selected Major Risk Factors, World Health Organization, Geneva, 2248 pp. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), 2008, Climate Change and Food Security: A Framework Document, Rome, 93 pp. Feldman, D.L., 2007, Water Policy for Sustainable Development, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD, 371 pp. Fischer, C., and R.D. Morgenstern, 2006, Carbon abatement costs: Why the wide range of estimates? Energy Journal, 27, 73–86. Folke, C., 2006, Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social- ecological systems analyses, Global Environmental Change, 16, 253–267. Freeman, J., and C. Kolstad, eds., 2006, Moving to Markets in Environ- mental Regulation, Oxford University Press, New York, 500 pp. Gamble, J.L., ed., 2008, Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems, Synthesis and As-

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Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems facing the world today. Policy decisions are already being made to limit or adapt to climate change and its impacts, but there is a need for greater integration between science and decision making. This book proposes six priorities for restructuring the United States' climate change research program to develop a more robust knowledge base and support informed responses:

  • Reorganize the Program Around Integrated Scientific-Societal Issues
  • Establish a U.S. Climate Observing System
  • Support a New Generation of Coupled Earth System Models
  • Strengthen Research on Adaptation, Mitigation, and Vulnerability
  • Initiate a National Assessment of the Risks and Costs of Climate Change Impacts and Options to Respond
  • Coordinate Federal Efforts to Provide Climate Information, Tools, and Forecasts Routinely to Decision Makers
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